Wednesday, March 7, at Spartan Room, Thwing Center.
Refreshments: 3:30 - 4:00 p.m, Talk: 4:00
- 5:00 p.m.
Probability theory provides a mathematical framework for modeling risk.
Philosophy considers fundamental questions of the nature and meaning of
chance. But it falls upon statistical science to collect and analyze data
to estimate risk, influence policy, and make decisions. Insurance provides
a compelling case study for notions of fairness and subsidy. This talk
will examine the notion of a fair game and consider its application in
areas including decision making, social security, medical insurance, and
exit polling. What are some of the elements of ``fair'' policies? A
deeper understanding of statistical modeling and evaluation would
illuminate subsidies implicit in public policy and would sharpen political
debate