Flourishing or Floundering? Relief Pitching in Major League Baseball

Rich Charnigo

Department of Statistics, CWRU


This is one in a series of talks under the heading of "Statistics in American Daily Life."

Abstract: A manager in major league baseball has the often-difficult task of deciding when and how often to switch pitchers during the course of a game. Looking at the simultaneous decline in pitching performance and increase in the use of relief pitching (and perhaps with a few contests from last season in mind), one wonders if relief pitching is being employed past the point of optimal effectiveness. We will consider how relief pitching has changed over the last thirty-nine years and formulate three linear models that will relate the earned run average (a primary measure of pitching performance) to the proportion of complete games (a proxy for the amount of relief pitching). By considering a statistic designed to assess the quality of a pitching change and the proportion of pitching substitutions in 1999 contests that exceed a certain threshold value of this statistic, we will assess the overall effectiveness of relief pitching. With this finding and the results from the aforementioned linear models, we will argue that relief pitching may now be contributing to the very problem which it is designed to circumvent: high scoring by the opposition.

Questions? Jiming Jiang